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Coffee market & how it affects you….

The following is a snap shot as to why coffee prices seem to be going up & up. The market has never been this explosive and unfortunately does end up reflecting in the price of your coffee . The bottom line is since the pandemic shipping and its associated costs, weather, our dollar as well as market speculating has definitely made the market a hot one, plus China has entered market as well as local costs increasing for roasters & cafes. 

Overview

Coffee markets stayed volatile through January, driven mainly by Brazil (Largest producer in the world – their prices affects other countries also) weather and changing rainfall forecasts. After early strength on dryness concerns in key growing areas such as Minas Gerais, improved rain outlooks later in the month pushed some prices lower as near-term crop stress risk eased.

At the same time, Trump and tariff uncertainty continues to add to market swings, with the USD reacting sharply to headlines. Because coffee is priced in USD, currency movement is adding an additional layer of risk on top of the usual weather-driven volatility. 

Currency — NZD vs USD

Over the past four weeks, the NZD has traded mostly in the mid to high 0.57s. Looking ahead, we expect NZD/USD to remain volatile rather than trend strongly in one direction.

Origin Updates

The market remains focused on how uneven regional weather and heat patterns may influence the 2025/26 season outcome. Recent analysis highlights that erratic rainfall and higher temperatures across regions continue to present risks to production and farm incomes — particularly when weather instability affects flowering and cherry development.

SHOP Coffee

I currently roast out in Waihi, with a 15 kilo Petroncini (my little girl “Audrey”), sweet outer, warm inner, full bodied with a lingering finish & balanced acidity –she provides a perfectly roasted bean.

SHOP Coffee